The 'Out' Campaign Quietly Gathers Momentum

It took a while, but it's finally happening.

The Eurosceptics (both Parliamentarian and public) are getting organised, and there's signs of life from the 'No' camp. With the ranks of those sitting in the Commons who favour an exit steadily swelling and giving indication of how their campaign will shape up, the 'Out's had two pieces of good news this week. 

Dominic Cummings - the man drafted in to spearhead the campaign - has mooted the idea of two referendums, meaning that an initial vote to leave the EU could be overturned in a later ballot, allowing Brussels to agree to significant changes between the two votes. This is important for two distinct reasons. Firstly, it removes the immediacy and finality from the decision, meaning that the electorate can vote in favour of an exit with the knowledge that it is reversible. There is a school of thought that suggests that it is the finality of the decision - committing wholeheartedly to the unknown and untested - that led to a last minute swing in favour of the Union in the Scottish referendum. Secondly, as mentioned above, it gives the EU the option of giving Britain a fairer deal in order to avoid a full blown exit. No doubt an initial 'No' vote would cause some serious headaches in Brussels, and would ratchet up the pressure on them to cave to some, if not all, of the Prime Minister's demands.

One of the main issues central to a potential exit is what becomes of Britain's financial services industry - the beating heart of our economy. A report by Business for Britain seeks to assuage those fears, indicating that the banks would have no cause to leave London, and that an exit wouldn't have any major negative effect on the City. 'Business as usual' is the phrase that is utilised, as it is highly unlikely that the EU would impose any restrictions on Britain's access to European markets: it wouldn't be in their best interests to do so. This, if it stands true, is a body blow to the 'Yes' campaign, and only strengthens Cameron's position at the negotiating table.

With over 60% of respondents to a recent Ipsos MORI poll stating an inclination to stay in the EU, the 'Out' campaigners have a tough task on their hands. However, as Michael Fabricant writes in The Telegraph, the economic landscape of Europe is undergoing a period of drastic change, and as time lapses before the referendum, the fiscal case for leaving the EU will become ever-stronger. An organised 'No' campaign and continuing economic evidence in favour of an exit may just make this a far closer race than expected.